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Beyond the Pass Rate
 Understanding School Completion and University Access in South Africa

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Key Takeaways:

  • The Class of 2024 achieved the highest matric pass rate since democracy, a major achievement. However, pass rates alone don’t reflect how many learners complete school or qualify for university.

  • Many students drop out or are held back between Grade 10 and 12. Of the 1.2 million students who started Grade 1 in 2013, 470,000 did not reach matric.

  • Some districts prioritize keeping students in school (high throughput) while others focus on higher matric scores, sometimes at the cost of retention. 

  • While 337,000 students achieved a Bachelor’s Pass, qualifying for university, there are only 200,000 available spaces, leaving over 100,000 students without placement despite being eligible.

Matric Matters: Tracking Progress over time

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Matric is a crucial milestone in South Africa, offering a pathway to better employment opportunities and higher education. The Class of 2024 achieved the highest matric pass rate since democracy—an achievement worth celebrating. However, matric pass rates alone do not tell the full story. They do not reflect how many learners complete school or qualify for higher education, highlighting deeper systemic challenges that require attention.

 

​Over the past decade, matric pass rates have steadily increased across most provinces and districts, with only two districts seeing slight declines.

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This improvement is crucial, as passing matric greatly enhances young South Africans' employment prospects, and provides them with opportunities to pursue higher education. Higher levels of education is associated with higher labour force participation, and better employment prospects.

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The True Pass Rate: Who makes it to Matric? 

While the matric pass rate is widely reported, it does not account for the many learners who drop out before reaching Grade 12. The "true" pass rate is much lower when considering the full cohort of students who started school.

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The graph below shows that of the 1.2 million learners who began Grade 1 in 2013, approximately 470,000 did not make it to matric in 2024, either because they dropped out, or are repeating grades. The available data does not distinguish between these groups, but the high dropout rate remains a critical challenge.

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Encouragingly, most students who do reach matric go on to pass. However, the priority remains reducing the number of learners who do not complete their schooling.

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The Throughput Rate vs the Pass Rate

Throughput rates—the percentage of Grade 10 students who pass matric two years later—offer additional insight into the education system’s performance. Most school dropouts occur after Grade 10, making this metric a key focus for policymakers.

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With limited resources, some districts may face a trade-off between throughput rates and matric pass rates. Do some prioritize keeping students in school, even if it lowers their matric marks? Or do they focus on higher matric scores at the expense of retention?

 

To explore this, districts were classified into four categories based on their throughput and matric pass rates:

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  • High Throughput – High Matric

  • High Throughput – Low Matric

  • Low Throughput – High Matric

  • Low Throughput – Low Matric

 

The map below illustrates these classifications. Free State and parts of KwaZulu-Natal were classified as Low Throughput – High Matric, aligning with reports that Free State has high dropout rates but consistently tops matric results. Meanwhile, most of Gauteng, parts of the Western Cape, and Mpumalanga were categorized as High Throughput – High Matric, representing success stories where districts have managed to keep students in school while maintaining strong matric performance.

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After Matric: The Next Step

Of the 615,000 learners who passed matric in 2024, many now face the next big challenge—entering higher education or the workforce. For many, university is the ultimate goal. However, only half of those who passed matric (roughly 337,000) achieved a Bachelors Pass, the minimum requirement for entry into one of South Africa’s 26 public universities.

 

While this is the highest Bachelors Pass rate ever recorded—a further reason to celebrate the Class of 2024—there are only 200 000 spaces available for first-year students. This means over 100 000 university-eligible matrics will not secure placement in public universities, forcing them to explore alternative education or employment options.

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Matric Matters in South Africa. It is also very complicated.

The record-breaking matric pass rate of 2024 is a testament to progress in South Africa’s education system, but it does not tell the full story. Many learners drop out before matric, and university access remains limited even for those who qualify. While improving pass rates is important, greater focus is needed on ensuring more students reach matric and have viable opportunities beyond school. Addressing these challenges will be key to building a more inclusive and equitable education system in the years ahead.

References:

Decoding Impact

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed on this blog are my own and do not reflect those of my employer. I blog in my personal capacity, and my content is not affiliated with my workplace.

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